2025/26/27/28 Elections

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Dems swarm 2028

Democrats are descending on the early presidential states, with different levels of ambiguity and ambition.

Why it matters: Presidential candidates win delegates by distinguishing themselves from the party they want to lead, not reciting party talking points.

• That puts the possible '28ers serving in Congress on a potential collision course with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on everything from scheduling to messaging.

Zoom in: Some of this summer's '28 travel is under the cover of capturing the majority in '26.

• Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who ran for president in 2020, is visiting New Hampshire this weekend to campaign for Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) in his Senate race.
• Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) is taking his "benefits over billionaires" tour to South Carolina next week, holding town halls in GOP districts in the Deep South. (See item No. 2 for more).
• Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) will hit Ohio this month with Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) as part of a tour featuring the pair. Murphy raised $8 million in the first quarter of this year.
• Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) will attend the Iowa State Fair in August. He visited Pennsylvania earlier this year.
• Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) plans to travel to battleground states over the summer, supporting Democratic candidates ahead of the midterm elections, sources tell us. Booker has done events with state Democratic parties in Florida, California, Tennessee and Arizona in recent months.

Zoom out: California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) visited GOP territory in South Carolina this week.

• Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel plans to hit an Iowa fish fry in September.
• Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg held a town hall in Iowa that focused on veterans.

The intrigue: The Democratic National Committee hasn't finalized which states it wants to hold early primaries and caucuses in the 2028 election.

• But there's a strong push to restore Iowa and New Hampshire to their traditional gatekeeper roles.

— Hans Nichols and Stephen Neukam

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✈️ Khanna's strategic sortie

Khanna's town halls in Deep South GOP districts are an opportunity "to test out this fresh economic vision with Black voters," he told us.

• "Black voters are the base of our party," Khanna said. The California Democrat co-chaired the 2020 presidential campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
• Khanna will also use the trip to troll Republicans and talk directly to some of their voters, including those who rely on Medicaid.

Driving the news: Khanna will participate in town hall meetings in the South Carolina districts of GOP Reps. Nancy Mace and William Timmons alongside Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.), the son of civil rights leader Jesse Jackson Sr.

• He has held previous town halls in GOP districts in California, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Zoom in: Timmons' district is more solidly Republican, but Democrats are eyeing Mace's seat.

• "The Mace one is a winnable district, light red," Khanna said. "That's exactly the type of district which we could win if we put in the effort, but it's not a give-me."

— Hans Nichols

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Cuomo stays in NYC mayor’s race despite losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo launched an independent run for New York City mayor on Monday, restarting his campaign after a bruising loss to progressive Zohran Mamdani in the Democratic primary.

https://apnews.com/article/andrew-cuomo-zohran-mamdani-new-york-mayor-b51061b3b88ff52b44ffebbbf952554d?

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? Scoop: RFK Jr.'s 2028 baby steps

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s super PAC co-hosted an organizing call for supporters and influencers last week, stirring speculation that he's positioning for a run at the White House in 2028, Axios' Brittany Gibson writes. Why it matters: A 2028 presidential campaign wasn't explicitly discussed. But two people with knowledge of the call came away believing it was a step toward another campaign for Kennedy, whose long-shot run in 2024 wound up helping Donald Trump to victory. Those leading the call included MAHA PAC leader Tony Lyons, vaccine scientist-turned-skeptic Robert Malone, and Kennedy's top adviser Stefanie Spear, according to two people who were on the call and two others familiar with it. Entertainer Russell Brand and motivational speaker Tony Robbins also spoke on the call, two of the sources said. Several who were involved saw Lyons' participation as a sign that the PAC would help prepare a campaign and fundraising machine in waiting for Kennedy, to be ready if he chooses to run. ps:So he figures that he hasn't done enough damage to HHS?

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? Exclusive: $500K in 2 days

Janelle Stelson, a Pennsylvania Democrat who narrowly lost to Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) in 2024, raised more than $500,000 in the first 48 hours since announcing for 2026, we scooped earlier tonight.

Why it matters: For a candidate essentially asking donors for a second chance, those are encouraging numbers.

• Bombshell fundraising announcements can also make other potential Democratic hopefuls think twice about jumping into the primary.
• "We are building the coalition needed to win this seat and it's clear that momentum is on our side," Stelson said in a statement to us.
• The DCCC tends to encourage repeat candidates more than its GOP counterparts, with 10 Democratic challengers who ran for a second time in competitive seats in 2024.

Perry raised $885,000 in the second quarter of 2025, with $282,000 coming from direct transfers for leadership accounts, leaving him with $1.2 million cash on hand.

— Hans Nichols

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? Texas Senate watch

GOP Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt is running a new ad more than 200 miles away from his Houston-area district.

Why it matters: Hunt sees an opening in the Texas Senate race. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is faltering in Republican primary polling, and mega-MAGA challenger Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, is under the microscope.

• The new Hunt ad is a clear effort to introduce himself to voters outside the area he represents.
• It also aims to paint an implicit contrast with Paxton, whose wife, Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last week.

? The ad presents Hunt as a family man, showing himself with his wife and three young children.

• "Family, faith, freedom. These are the values that define Texas, and they're the values that define Wesley Hunt," the ad says.

Hunt — who has yet to formally announce a Senate bid — is spending in the "six figures" to air the commercial in the Houston and Dallas media markets, according to a source familiar with the buy.

• Hunt has been running a separate ad in the Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Waco and Amarillo areas highlighting his military background.

Go deeper

— Alex Isenstatdt

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2028's huge opening field

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Dozens of ambitious Democrats are looking at the next presidential race and thinking: Why not me? They're stashing millions of dollars, quietly hiring presidential-level campaign staff, fine-tuning potential stump speeches, sitting for glossy profiles, trying to grow their social media followings, and visiting Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Axios' Alex Thompson reports. Why it matters: The 2028 Democratic presidential primary will be the most wide-open in a generation. And — sorry! — it could also be the longest presidential contest ever. Several top Dem insiders tell Alex they're preparing for multiple candidates to formally launch even before next year's midterms. ✈️ Zoom in: A dozen Democrats have already visited or have plans to visit an early primary state this year. The governors: Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Gavin Newsom of California, Tim Walz of Minnesota, Wes Moore of Maryland, JB Pritzker of Illinois. The senators: Mark Kelly of Arizona, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Other Democrats: Rep. Ro Khanna of California, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. Several other Democratic lawmakers haven't traveled to early primary states but have tried to establish national brands: Govs. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Jared Polis of Colorado, Phil Murphy of New Jersey. Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Raphael Warnock of Georgia, plus Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. ? Reality check: After Trump's rise in the Republican Party and voter anger, there's always the possibility of an outsider coming in and demolishing the field. ? By the numbers: At the end of June, here's how much money each of the potential candidates in Congress had in their campaign account. Those funds can legally be transferred to a presidential campaign account. Booker: $19.6 million (he's also up for re-election in 2026). Khanna: $14.2 million. Murphy: $10.2 million. Ocasio-Cortez: $9.8 million. Kelly: $7.9 million. Warnock: $4.2 million. Klobuchar: $1.8 million. Sanders has the most money on hand — $20.1 million. But he'd be 87 by the November 2028 election, and has suggested he's not interested in another presidential run.

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How redistricting in Texas and other states could change the game for US House elections

Redistricting usually happens after the once-a-decade population count by the U.S. Census Bureau or in response to a court ruling. Now, Texas Republicans want to break that tradition and other states could follow suit. The rules of redistricting can be vague and variable; each state has its own set of rules and procedures. Politicians are gauging what voters will tolerate when it comes to politically motivated mapmaking. Read more.   Project 2025 author Paul Dans will challenge Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina A chief architect of Project 2025, Paul Dans, is launching a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, joining a crowded field that will test the loyalties of President Donald Trump and his MAGA movement in next year’s midterm election. Read More.

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?️ Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) officially launched his Senate campaign today, as Axios scooped.

 

Sudden Dem hope

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

Democrats have a rare bright spot in their party's existential crisis: 2026, at least to them, looks pretty good, Axios' Alex Thompson writes. Why it matters: The party is full of angst over how to retake the White House and win back the voters they lost to President Trump over the past decade. But Dems feel increasingly sanguine about taking back the House next year. Here's the five-part theory of the case for why Dems are optimistic about 2026, as laid out by more than a dozen of their top campaign staffers: The "big, beautiful bill" is polling terribly. Cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act are expected to make the "big, beautiful bill" even more unpopular. Prices are still high despite Trump promising to bring them down. Economic approval had long been one of Trump's consistent political strengths. Now it's not. Trump's deportations are getting blowback after going well beyond violent criminals and gang members. Polls show Republicans losing an advantage on one of their key issues in the 2024 election. Democratic enthusiasm. A recent CNN poll found 72% Democrats and Democratic-aligned voters are extremely motivated to vote in the midterm elections, compared to just 50% of Republicans and Republican-aligned voters. ? Between the lines: Some Democrats are worried that victories in 2026 will stop the party from reckoning with its deeper issues and unpopularity. The party needs to change and victories will give party leaders excuses not to, they argue. Zoom in: In 2026, Democrats only need to win a handful of seats to take back the House majority. They also just successfully recruited former Gov. Roy Cooper to run for Senate in North Carolina, as Axios first reported. Democrats believe they're getting the right kinds of candidates in the House: people with little connection to D.C. who can run against both parties. Midterms often favor the party out of power. Democrats have increasingly done better with college-educated voters, who also tend to vote more often in non-presidential elections. ? Reality check: The Democratic Party is facing headwinds of historic unpopularity that will make it harder to win back the House. The Wall Street Journal recently found that 63% have an unfavorable view of Democrats — the highest percentage in the Journal's polling back to 1990.

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• ?️ Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) will attempt a comeback Senate bid next year in Ohio after losing his re-election race in 2024 to Trump-backed challenger Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio). Go deeper.

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? The everything race

Both parties are starting to act like the single most important vote in the 2026 midterms will take place in November of 2025.

Why it matters: Republicans and Democrats are both eyeing $100 million campaigns to convince Californians to approve (or block) a mid-cycle redistricting change.

? Control of the House is potentially at stake.

• Gov. Gavin Newsom, brimming with presidential energy, has gone all-in, vowing to use his state as a blue wall against President Trump's mid-cycle meddling.
• He has promised to reveal proposed maps that would add up to five Democratic seats — and make just as many battleground districts safe territory for Dems.
• "We anticipate these maps will completely neuter and neutralize what is happening in Texas," Newsom said, referencing the special session where Texas Republicans plan to add five House Republican seats.

Zoom in: Democrats have been privately discussing their own $100 million dollar campaign for the ballot initiative, which will require voters to amend the state's constitution, according to people familiar with the matter.

• Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is trying to raise $100 million to oppose the change, Politico reported today.
• McCarthy will get some muscle from former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who championed nonpartisan redistricting.
• Arnold posted a pic today where he's wearing a "F*** the politicians. Terminate gerrymander" t-shirt while working out.

Between the lines: Democrats privately like their donor pitch better.

• If Republicans win the ballot initiative, they will save five incumbents — or at least give them a fighting chance in 2026 and beyond.
• But if Democrats prevail, they can flip those five GOP seats and use Newsom's redistricting wand to protect up to another five seats, currently in Democratic control.
• That means the party won't have to spend millions to defend those five seats for the next three cycles.

The bottom line: California is typically a fount of big dollar donations. This year it will become a sink.

— Hans Nichols and Justin Green

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? Big gamble for '28

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is taking a gamble that other potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders aren't: Party voters might reward her — or at least not punish her — for working with President Trump.

• Why it matters: Whitmer's approach is a sharp break from other prominent Democrats, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who are defining themselves as anti-Trump warriors, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes.

? The big picture: Whitmer has visited the White House three times this year — most recently this month, when she met with Trump to discuss tariffs, Medicaid funding and northern Michigan's recovery efforts from a spring ice storm.

• During previous Oval Office meetings, they discussed stationing a fleet of new fighter aircraft at Selfridge Air National Guard Base and a $1 billion federal project aimed at protecting the Great Lakes from damaging invasive carp, sources tell Axios.

Trump has told reporters that Whitmer is a "very good person" who was doing an "excellent job" when she came to the White House in early April.

• When Trump visited Michigan later that month, he called the governor onstage. "I'm not supposed to do that," Trump said. "She's a Democrat. They say, 'Don't do that. Don't have her here.' I said, 'No, she's going to be here.' She's done a very good job."

? The intrigue: Trump shows an affinity for those who are cordial with him, regardless of their party affiliation.

• He's said privately that Whitmer is one of the national Democrats who most impresses him.

Trump, by contrast, frequently blasts Newsom, whom he derides as "Newscum," and Pritzker, whom he calls "probably the worst" governor in the country.

• Keep reading.

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? Musk prepares to back Vance in '28

Elon Musk is already pumping the brakes on his vow last month to start a new political party, and may spend big to back Vice President JD Vance's expected presidential run in 2028, The Wall Street Journal reports (gift link).

• Why it matters: Musk's moves could help lock in other political and financial support for Vance long before he signals his plans. Vance, the RNC finance chair, is holding high-dollar party fundraisers coast to coast.

"Musk has told allies that he wants to focus his attention on his companies and is reluctant to alienate powerful Republicans by starting a third party that could siphon off GOP voters," the Journal's Brian Schwartz says.

• "Musk has stayed in touch with Vance in recent weeks, and he has acknowledged to associates that if he goes ahead with forming a political party, he would damage his relationship with the vice president."

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?️ Exclusive: Silicon Valley enters gov race

Tech entrepreneur Ethan Agarwal tells Axios' Dan Primack that he's joining the crowded race for California governor, as a Democrat "who believes in capitalism."

• Why it matters: Silicon Valley has entered the chat.

State of play: Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is term-limited. At least a dozen candidates have announced for next June's open primary.

• Agarwal, 40, who lives in the Bay Area, has lined up fundraising events held by such local luminaries as Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan and DoorDash co-founder Stanley Tang.
• Agarwal also has local bona fides, having founded and sold two startups that had raised over $100 million from VC firms like Andreessen Horowitz.

? The big picture: Listen to Agarwal talk, and you might think he co-authored "Abundance."

• He bemoans rules, regulations and fees that have cost California everything from film productions to autonomous vehicle testing.

The bottom line: Agarwal has a steep uphill climb, with virtually no statewide name recognition. He even acknowledges that other tech execs might make more sense to carry the capitalist flag, but that they're billionaires with "much more to lose."

• Expect him to target young voters, Indian American voters, and tech workers.

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Dems eye midterm mini-convention

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

Senior Democratic officials want to hold a rare national convention before the 2026 midterms to showcase candidates and the party's emerging leaders, Axios' Alex Thompson reports. Why it matters: The event — a smaller version of the national conventions in presidential election years — would allow the party to fundraise and get media attention as it tries to win back both chambers of Congress. And it'd be a magnet for '28 hopefuls. The convention would create a national stage for Democrats running in key House, Senate and governor races to frame their arguments against President Trump. Ken Martin, the new chair of the Democratic National Committee, quietly has been pushing the idea with party leaders in Minneapolis this week during his first meeting as DNC chair. Martin has noted that the party has held midterm-focused conventions in the past, though not for decades. Keep reading.

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? GOP midterm fear: rising prices

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

Republican operatives and lawmakers are increasingly anxious about how inflation could affect the GOP in the 2026 midterms — and want President Trump to take more aggressive steps to address rising prices, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes. Why it matters: GOP insiders and lawmakers believe the cost of drugs and consumer items — and how the White House deals with tariffs that potentially turbocharge prices and even create shortages — will be key to whether the GOP keeps control of Congress next year. ? Zoom in: Republicans on Capitol Hill and beyond praise Trump's recent focus on crime. But many are alarmed by internal polls and focus groups showing persistent — and increasing — concerns about prices. A conservative group aligned with congressional GOP leadership has been distributing polling data to Hill Republicans that shows 25% of voters view inflation as the most important issue facing the country. That's more than double the percentage of the second-ranked concern — government corruption — according to the polling by the GOP firm GrayHouse. ?️ Behind the scenes: GOP strategists are aggressively pushing the party's 2026 candidates to talk about inflation, which they worry hasn't been part of many candidates' messaging. They want candidates to describe the steps the party has taken to curb inflation — particularly Trump's "big, beautiful bill," which Republicans argue will ultimately lower consumer costs ? What's next: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, promoting "no tax on tips" during a Labor Day swing of three D.C.-area diners, says he's preparing options for President Trump on improving housing affordability.

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? MAGA hope in Iowa

Hinson's quick announcement that she's running for the Senate in Iowa will likely put a Trump loyalist at the top of the ticket, giving the GOP hope they can turn out Iowa's MAGA base when Trump isn't on the ballot.

Why it matters: Republicans will be defending two purple House seats in a state where they got clobbered in Trump's first mid-term election in 2018, losing three of Iowa's four seats.

• This cycle, they know they need to reassemble their presidential coalition to help return Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who won by some 800 votes, to the House.
• Democrats are optimistic they can turn Iowa's congressional races into a referendum on some of Trump's policies, from imposing tariffs to canceling clean energy tax credits.

Between the lines: Seasoned GOP consultants referred to Ernst's retirement, which she announced today, in similar tones to Sen. Thom Tillis' decision to forgo reelection in North Carolina in June.

• The senators were proven winners, but the base wasn't super excited about them.

Flashback: When Ernst was equivocating on supporting Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense, the state's attorney general wrote an op-ed criticizing "D.C. politicians" for potentially bucking Trump.

• The message was clear: Support Hegseth or invite a primary.
• Ernst also gave Democrats several days of media talking points when she said, "We are all going to die" when asked about Medicaid cuts.

The other side: In Iowa's 2nd District, Democrats are already rallying behind former state representative, State Rep. Christina Bohannan, who raised more than $800,000 in the first two weeks in her third try to defeat Miller-Meeks.

• They are also heralding a special election in Sioux City last month, in which a Democrat won a Trump district by double digits.
• And Republicans are clearly focused on Nunn's race, with the White House actively persuading him to stay out of the governor's race so he could defend the 3rd District.

— Hans Nichols

Paul Renner, former Florida House speaker, announces run for governor

TALLAHASSEE — Former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner is jumping into the race to replace term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/09/03/paul-renner-former-florida-house-speaker-announces-run-for-governor/?

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Facing Voter Pressure, Swing-State Democrat Swears Off AIPAC Cash

Democratic Rep. Deborah Ross of North Carolina has pledged that she will not accept contributions from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee during the 2026 midterm election cycle — after receiving more than $100,000 from the conservative pro-Israel lobby group in past elections, Ross’s office confirmed to The Intercept. 

https://theintercept.com/2025/08/29/aipac-israel-gaza-democrats-deborah-ross/?

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?️ JFK grandson eyes Congress

Jack Schlossberg, 32, a writer and grandson of President John F. Kennedy, said yesterday he is forming an exploratory committee to run for Congress in New York, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

• Why it matters: Schlossberg is a high-profile figure in the Democratic Party who would likely bring additional attention to what is already expected to be a hotly contested race.

The seat, New York's 12th congressional district in Manhattan, opened this week after Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) said he will not run for an 18th term.

• More potential candidates.

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Democrat James Walkinshaw will win US House seat in Virginia special election, narrowing GOP majority, CNN projects

Democrat James Walkinshaw will win a special election in Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, CNN’s Decision Desk projects, bolstering Democratic numbers in the House and cutting down on an already slim Republican majority.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/09/politics/virginia-special-election-house?

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Trump announces Republican midterm convention

President Trump on Tuesday announced that the Republican Party will host a convention ahead of the 2026 midterms — an event Axios previously reported senior Democratic officials are also weighing putting on their party's calendar.

https://www.axios.com/2025/09/16/trump-republican-midterm-convention-announcement?

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Republican Brad Raffensperger to run for Georgia governor after defying Trump over 2020 election

ATLANTA (AP) — Georgia’s Brad Raffensperger, the Republican secretary of state who rejected Donald Trump’s call to help overturn the state’s 2020 election results, said Wednesday that he’s running for governor in 2026.

https://apnews.com/article/secretary-brad-raffensperger-georgia-republican-governor-2026-7c19e8f80d90d0fb7aad0e30b42a97a1?

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Janet Mills "likely" for Maine Senate race

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) is telling political allies that she is likely to run for the Senate, with some expecting an official announcement in the coming weeks.

• At an end-of-the-summer "dance party" hosted this month by Adam Lee, the scion of a storied Maine political family, Mills left little doubt she is likely to run, according to people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: Schumer has for months pushed Mills, the popular two-term Democratic governor, to run for Senate.

• Defeating GOP Sen. Susan Collins, who has served five terms in the chamber, has long been a goal of Schumer.
• Mills has been interviewing potential campaign managers but is likely to lean heavily on state Rep. Matt Moonen, who is the majority leader, for strategic advice, as she did in her governor's race.

The bottom line: Mills' entrance into the race would set up a high-profile establishment versus progressive primary showdown.

• Progressives are lining up behind oyster farmer Graham Platner.
• Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) joined Platner for a rally this month with more than 6,500 people in attendance.

— Stephen Neukam and Hans Nichols

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New York City Mayor Eric Adams ends his reelection bid

New York City Mayor Eric Adams is ending his reelection bid, a move long sought by rivals of Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani who have wanted to consolidate the opposition against him.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/28/politics/new-york-city-mayor-eric-adams-suspends-his-reelection-bid?

ps:Oh no I will not drop out of this race!!!!!

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Madison Cawthorn seeks comeback, running for Congress in Florida

ST. PETERSBURG (AP) — Former Republican U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who was defeated in 2022 in a scandal-plagued North Carolina primary, is looking for a comeback by running for Congress again, this time from Florida.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/10/02/madison-cawthorn-seeks-comeback-running-for-congress-in-florida/?