2025/26/27/28 Elections

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? Shapiro's 2028 strategy

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Mark Makela/Getty Images

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has a plan that could give him an edge in the 2028 presidential primary: Engineer a blowout for his state's Democrats in next year's midterms to prove he can turn the electoral college's biggest battleground blue again. ? Why it matters: Shapiro has quietly and methodically tightened his grip on Pennsylvania's Democratic machine in recent months — recruiting key congressional candidates, clearing the field for them and remaking the state party. The moves, insiders say, are designed to maximize Democratic wins — and position Shapiro as the party's most electable presidential contender. Next year's election map gives Shapiro plenty of opportunities: He's up for a second term and aiming to help flip as many as four congressional seats in Pennsylvania. ? Between the lines: Shapiro needs to make a big splash if he decides to run for president, as virtually every top Democratic official in Pennsylvania expects. He's only at 4% in early 2028 primary polls, despite a robust national media strategy and his considerable popularity in a must-win swing state that President Trump carried last year. What they're saying: "Governor Shapiro is going to work hard to elect people who are going to fight for Pennsylvanians and defeat those who are making their lives harder," Shapiro spokesperson Manuel Bonder said. "In 2026, Pennsylvania will be at the center of putting a stop to [GOP policies] by flipping the House." Zoom in: Shapiro has been more engaged in electoral politics than in past years, shaking up a moribund state party and wading into congressional primaries. He previously kept his distance from the state's Democratic Party, which had struggled to raise money and faced intra-party accusations of incompetence. Shapiro essentially launched a rescue mission, nudging the state committee chair to step aside and encouraging an ally, former state auditor general Eugene DePasquale, to take over. Shapiro installed a longtime aide, Larry Hailsham Jr., as the state party's executive director. Behind the scenes: Shapiro also has privately shaped congressional primaries — a departure from his normally risk-averse style. He intervened after state and national Democrats grew worried this year about the party's crowded primary to take on Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a vulnerable first-term member. Shapiro encouraged firefighters union leader Bob Brooks to jump into the race against Mackenzie, according to two people familiar with their conversations, even after EMILYs List and the former Democratic congresswoman in the area backed another candidate. Shapiro also helped clear the Democratic field for former TV news anchor Janelle Stelson, who's challenging Republican Rep. Scott Perry in a rematch after coming within 1 percentage point of defeating him last year. The governor quietly has made clear that he backs Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti's run against GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan, as well as Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie's challenge of Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, several sources said. Shapiro-approved candidates run across the party's ideological spectrum, from a Bernie Sanders-endorsed contender to more traditional Democrats — a notable coalition for the moderate governor ahead of 2028. The other side: Republican Stacy Garrity, who's challenging Shapiro for governor, vows to complicate the incumbent's expected glide path to reelection and likely run for president. "The political graveyard is full of candidates who have miscalculated and have tried to run for multiple offices at the same time," said John Brabender, a Garrity strategist. ?️ The big picture: Earlier this year, Shapiro opened up somewhat about his ambitions, saying of a presidential run: "A year ago, when someone would say that to me, I quite candidly would just laugh." But now, "I hear them say it because they're scared about what's happening in D.C." Keep reading. — Holly Otterbein

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? 1 fun thing: A way-too-early prediction

Data: Polymarket; Chart: Axios Visuals Prediction markets — which in some recent elections have been more accurate in picking winners than many polls — already are taking bets on the 2028 election. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is viewed as the runaway leader for the Democratic nomination in this way-too-early snapshot. Polymarket bettors currently see Vice President Vance as the likely GOP nominee — and think a Democrat is more likely to win the election.

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Democrat wins Miami mayor’s race for the first time in nearly 30 years

MIAMI (AP) — Democrat Eileen Higgins won the Miami mayor’s race on Tuesday, defeating a Republican endorsed by President Donald Trump to end her party’s nearly three-decade losing streak and give Democrats a boost in one of the last electoral battles ahead of the 2026 midterms.

https://apnews.com/article/miami-mayor-trump-higgins-gonzalez-f0d8c55a4b97962ac1348c5a93295465?

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? MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell announced he's running for Minnesota governor. A Trump loyalist who's pushed false election fraud claims, he joins a crowded field of Republicans seeking to take on Democratic Gov. Tim Walz. Go deeper.

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⚡️ Trump's challenger endorsement

The NRCC's formal policy is not to endorse in GOP primaries. But Trump has started backing GOP challengers. Trump endorsed former Maine Gov. Paul LePage yesterday in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine). He backed former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln in his bid to unseat Rep. Adam Gray (D-Calif.). And he endorsed Eric Flores, a federal prosecutor, over former Rep. Mayra Flores in Texas. Mayra Flores blasted the move, writing that "President Trump first pardoned Democrat Henry Cuellar and is now endorsing a Biden DOJ appointee pretending to be MAGA." The big picture: The White House and the NRCC have previously coordinated behind the scenes to shape GOP fields, including pushing swing-district Republicans away from their higher-office ambitions. Trump has so far stayed on the sidelines in the contentious GOP Senate primaries in Texas and Georgia. What they're saying: "From secure borders to lower costs, Republicans are delivering wins for every American family — and we are just getting started," Johnson told us in a statement. "Working hand-in-hand with President Donald Trump and [NRCC] Chairman Richard Hudson, we are recruiting and supporting America First candidates across the country who are ready to help us defend and grow our majority and continue America's comeback." — Kate Santaliz and Hans Nichols

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Paul Renner wants GOP voters to compare his record with Byron Donalds’

CLEARWATER — GOP gubernatorial candidate Paul Renner is proud of his conservative record while serving in office and says Republican voters should compare it to Byron Donalds’ over the past nine years, “apples to apples.”

https://floridaphoenix.com/2025/12/17/paul-renner-wants-gop-voters-to-compare-his-record-with-byron-donalds/?

?️ Vance gets '28 boosts

Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk speaks during the group's AmericaFest in Phoenix on Thursday. Photo: Olivier Touron/AFP via Getty Images Three moves this week appeared to solidify Vice President Vance's place as GOP frontrunner in '28: Erika Kirk, widow of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk and the organization's new CEO, endorsed a potential presidential bid by Vance on the opening night of the conservative youth group's annual conference, AmericaFest (AmFest), in Phoenix on Thursday. "We are going to get my husband's friend JD Vance elected for 48 in the most resounding way possible," she said, referring to the 48th president. Keep reading. Earlier this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, considered a potential candidate himself, also weighed in, telling Vanity Fair: "If JD Vance runs for president, he's going to be our nominee, and I'll be one of the first people to support him." Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who's also generating '28 buzz, reposted a poll that showed her beating Vance in a hypothetical matchup. Go deeper: Young conservative women find a home in Turning Point with Charlie Kirk's widow at the helm.

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2028 election

As Turning Point’s conference wrapped with Kirk’s widow Erika endorsing JD Vance, a new CNN poll found that about half of Americans say they’ve already given the 2028 presidential election some thought — although most don't have a specific candidate in mind. Those with a candidate in mind had no clear consolidation behind a single name. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 22% named Vance, 4% named Secretary of State Marco Rubio and 2% named Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Another 3% say they’d like President Trump to make another run, even though he’s barred by the Constitution. California Gov. Gavin Newsom came in at 11% among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 5%.

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• ? George Conway is running for a U.S. House seat in New York City, "testing whether he can turn his strong social media following into votes in a crowded Democratic primary." The former Republican helped found the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, and was previously married to onetime Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway. Go deeper.

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?️ Scoop: Bannon eyes '28 run

Steve Bannon speaks during the Semafor World Economy Summit in D.C. last April. Photo: Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images MAGA godfather Steve Bannon is laying the groundwork for a 2028 run for president, two people familiar with his thinking tell Axios' Alex Isenstadt. Why it matters: The former White House adviser isn't serious about becoming president — that's not the point. Instead, he's told allies he wants to shape the debate and pressure Republican candidates to embrace an "America First" agenda — including a non-interventionist foreign policy, economic populism and opposition to Big Tech. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who has appeared on Bannon's "WarRoom" podcast, said: "The Bannon campaign will merge the foreign policy of Rand Paul with the tax policy of Elizabeth Warren." Bannon adamantly denied a run to Axios: He called the idea "bullsh*t" and said he's been focused on something else for 2028: supporting a third term for President Trump, despite the Constitution's two-term limit on presidents. "We don't have a country if we don't get every ounce of fight and energy from President Trump — you can drive a Mack Truck through the 22nd Amendment — and that's exactly what I intend to do in order to save our country," Bannon told us. Bannon said he's helping with an upcoming book by lawyer Alan Dershowitz, "Could President Trump Constitutionally Serve a Third Term?" The legal analysis, out in March, lays out an argument for how Trump could constitutionally serve a third term. The intrigue: Bannon associates, familiar with his private comments on the 2028 election, envision a nontraditional campaign run from his Capitol Hill podcast studio — and without rallies in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. A Bannon ally said the biggest "tell" that he's weighing a run is his cheerleading for a third Trump term. "When Trump doesn't end up running, he'll reluctantly say he must carry the mantle," the ally predicted. ? For now, Bannon is not-so-subtly pressuring three potential GOP contenders for president in 2028 — Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). Bannon yesterday orchestrated a massive "Save Texas from Radical Islam" all-day conference and dinner, including 150 grassroots leaders from 22 groups, in Grapevine, Texas. The event was organized by WarRoom and sponsor Patriot Mobile, with Glenn Beck as keynote. Bannon told us the event drew 750 — the ballroom limit — with 1,000+ requests for tickets. He launches "WarRoom: Texas" on Monday. ?️ Bannon told us he's moving his show to Texas for the entire month of February to focus on a Texas primary on March 3.

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? "America First" meets "Alaska First"

Screenshot: Peltola campaign launch video

Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) launched her Senate campaign with a bang today, saying the state's delegation "used to stand up to their party and put Alaska first." Peltola developed a close relationship with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) when they served together in Congress, but Murkowski quickly endorsed Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) this morning. We scooped last week that Peltola was moving toward a Senate campaign instead of running for governor. The big picture: Alaska isn't a massively expensive state to run a statewide campaign. But with Peltola in the race, Schumer can force Thune and the GOP establishment to spend time and energy defending a seat in a solidly Republican state. Driving the news: In her launch video, Peltola focused on rising grocery costs and declining fisheries, and attacked both Washington, D.C., and the current political class in Alaska. "It's about time Alaskans teach the rest of the country what 'Alaska First' — and, really, 'America First' — looks like," she said, speaking directly to the camera. "My agenda for Alaska will always be fish, family and freedom," she said. — Hans Nichols

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Collins announces bid for governor as DeSantis wavers on whether to endorse

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announced his long-awaited bid for governor Monday, hours after Gov. Ron DeSantis wavered on whether he’ll get involved in the Republican race to succeed him.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/01/12/collins-announces-bid-for-governor-as-desantis-wavers-on-whether-to-endorse/?

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MAGA showdown

Marjorie Taylor Greene’s departure from Congress set off a mad scramble in her  old district in northwest Georgia. More than 20 candidates — including veterans, farmers and business owners — are running for her seat.

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? The Kamala divide

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Camille Cohen/AFP via Getty Images

MEMPHIS, Tenn. — Many Democratic powerbrokers in D.C. are done with Kamala Harris. They see the former vice president as a politically toxic reminder of an unpopular president, Joe Biden. ?️ But among lots of Democratic voters — particularly Black voters crucial in any Democratic primary — Harris is an exalted, historic figure. This past week put the party's divide over Harris into focus. ? In a swing through the South, she was greeted like a rock star by enthusiastic crowds of mostly Black men and women, and white women. Many told Axios they want her to run again in 2028. Harris' appearances — like early polling for the 2028 race — defied top Democrats' belief that she isn't popular with the party's base, and that people blame her for Donald Trump's 2024 victory. Many top Democratic lawmakers, donors, and even potential rivals remain skeptical Harris will run again, partly because of her ties to Biden. One top Democrat told Axios: "Kamala hasn't accepted she's not running yet." ⚡️ But Harris' southern tour had the energy of a campaign-in-waiting. Traveling by bus, she drew thousands of people to packed auditoriums in New Orleans, Jackson, Miss., and Memphis as part of her recently expanded book tour. In New Orleans she got a standing ovation when she was introduced to swear in new Mayor Helena Moreno, a longtime ally. In Jackson, Mayor John Horhn told Harris: "You don't know how much you mean to Mississippi. You don't know how much you mean to America." Horhn was more muted a week earlier when he ran into former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, another potential 2028 contender: "We could do worse. No doubt about that," before adding that he'd be a "great candidate." Memphis Mayor Paul Young called Harris, the first woman to be vice president, "a trailblazer" whom "many of us look up to." Harris has hinted that if she were to run again, she'd call for changes to some pre-Trump policies she was a part of. She told people in Memphis they shouldn't "romanticize" how things were before. Reality check: Goodwill and popularity aren't the same as political support. Many potential 2028 contenders believe Democratic voters want a candidate who can win in November — which, to them, means not Harris. There also weren't many white men at her recent events at a time when some in the party are trying to slice into Republicans' advantage with that demographic. Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee could help Harris win the Democratic nomination, but all three states are likely to go to the GOP candidate in the 2028 general election. The big picture: In the past two decades, winning Black voters — particularly in the South — has been the key to winning the Democratic nomination. Polls indicate Harris has far more support among Black women — Democrats' most loyal voting bloc — than any other potential 2028 candidate. In pollster Cornell Belcher's surveys of Black voters, Harris' favorability is second only to Barack Obama's, whose presidential campaigns he worked on. "If you can't compete with Harris with Black voters, you can't win the South," Belcher said. What's next: Harris' schedule for promoting "107 Days" includes events next month in Richmond, Va., Greensboro, N.C., Charlotte, N.C., Columbia, S.C., Savannah, Ga., Macon, Ga., and Montgomery, Ala. She told the crowd in Jackson: "If one considers themselves to be an American leader and does not spend time in the South, one cannot be an American leader." Read more. — Alex Thompson

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?️‍⚧️ Dems' trans rights tightrope

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Democrats weighing bids for president are struggling for footing on transgender issues, dodging questions on the topic more than a year after President Trump's "Kamala is for they/them" ad was widely seen as one of his most effective attacks. ? Why it matters: Republicans already are promising to air 2028 campaign ads blasting Democrats over the party's support for trans rights, as polls show a majority of Americans favoring the GOP's side on key parts of the debate. GOP candidates have been particularly aggressive with ads objecting to trans girls participating in high school girls' sports. Zoom in: This week, California Gov. Gavin Newsom stumbled when conservative influencer Ben Shapiro pressed him on the issue on Newsom's podcast. "The question that you're not wanting to answer ... is whether boys can become girls," Shapiro said. "Yeah, I just, well, I think, uh, for the grace of God," Newsom replied. ? Some Democrats winced at seeing Newsom — a longtime advocate for LGBTQ rights — appear unprepared for a Republican "gotcha" question. "You need a clear answer, whatever it is," Liam Kerr, co-founder of the centrist Welcome PAC, told Axios. ✏️ Axios quizzed nearly 20 Democrats viewed as possible 2028 contenders. Most didn't want to talk about trans rights. We chose questions based on those that Democratic candidates up and down ballots have encountered in interviews and ads for years. We asked: Should transgender girls be able to participate in girls' sports? Do you believe transgender youths under age 18 should be able to be placed on puberty blockers and hormones? And what is your response to the question: "Can a man become a woman?" Former Vice President Harris, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, California Rep. Ro Khanna and Newsom were among those declining to comment or not responding. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Chicago's ex-Mayor Emanuel and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg were the only three potential contenders who shared answers. A spokesperson for Shapiro pointed us to his previous remarks to The Atlantic, in which he said local scholastic sports officials, not politicians, should make decisions about transgender athletes. But the governor said his personal view is different, and that trans youths don't "deserve an unfair advantage on the playing field." His spokesperson noted Shapiro's recent legal action against the Trump administration over its efforts to stop gender-transition care for children. Emanuel said his positions hadn't changed since he was interviewed recently by conservative commentator Megyn Kelly, who asked whether "boys should be able to play in girls' sports" and "can a man become a woman?" Emanuel said "no" to both. He also said parents should make decisions about whether transgender minors are able to access hormones. A Buttigieg spokesperson referred us to an NPR interview in which he was asked to respond to the Emanuel-Kelly conversation. Buttigieg called for "compassion" and said decisions about trans athletes should be made by sports leagues. Some Democratic strategists and officials argue they've learned to neutralize the issue, pointing to Republicans' anti-trans ads that appeared to fall flat in last year's Virginia gubernatorial election after Democrat Abigail Spanberger responded aggressively to the attacks. ?️ The big picture: Most Americans support anti-discrimination protections for trans people, according to a Pew Research Center survey last year. But they also favor GOP-backed policies barring gender transitions for minors and requiring trans athletes to play on teams that match their sex assigned at birth, Pew found. Democrats broadly support trans rights and gender-affirming care, but many officials and strategists feel caught between a sympathetic, vulnerable community and a broader electorate that has grown more conservative on the issue. When Newsom, and some other Democrats, voiced opposition to transgender girls competing in girls' sports in 2024, he drew fire from progressives such as Ocasio-Cortez. "If you're an LGBT kid or a family," she said, "we can't throw you under the bus in order to win an election." Read more. — Holly Otterbein

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??‍♂️ Catching up on the pre-campaign

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to: Newsom vowed to fight a proposed billionaires' tax in California, risking the ire of the progressive wing of his party. But the governor, who has been called an ideological chameleon by friends and foes alike, left the door open to a national wealth tax. Ocasio-Cortez fundraised for centrist Senate candidate Mary Peltola of Alaska. It's the latest example of the New York progressive darling making nice with the party's establishment, which backs Peltola. Beshear was asked by Politico's Jonathan Martin about what some see as his biggest vulnerability: a deficit of "rizz." The Kentucky governor joked that he's got "maybe a little aura." Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly has leveraged Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's efforts to demote the retired Navy captain into 1.1 million new social media followers since November. Josh Shapiro and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore formed an unlikely alliance with the Trump administration to push for tech companies to pay for soaring energy costs — a sign that both parties are nervous about voter backlash to power-guzzling AI data centers. Buttigieg visited the Detroit Auto Show and was coy when asked if he'll run for president again. "I don't know," he said. He drew about 1,000 people to a town hall in Wisconsin a couple of days later. Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin told the New York Times she was being investigated by federal prosecutors after she participated in a video urging members of the military to not obey illegal orders, as is required under military code. Kelly's appearance in the same video led Hegseth to target him for punishment. NPR affiliate WGLT reported that Pritzker has given nearly 500 media interviews during his seven-year tenure in Illinois, including two dozen appearances on both CNN and MS Now, 15 stops with the New York Times, and just two with Fox News. The governor's strategy has shifted as he's inched closer to a presidential run: In 2019, 82% of his interviews were with local media. By 2025, that had fallen to 19%. A new poll found Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has an enviable 60% approval rating in her critical battleground state, suggesting that her pragmatic approach to dealing with President Trump is paying off, at least at home. Khanna sat for a nearly two-hour interview with conservative podcaster Shawn Ryan where he spoke about his work to force the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Booker traveled to North Carolina and South Carolina, where he rallied Democrats and talked about health care cuts. Emanuel said it's time "to end ICE as we know it today under Donald Trump," telling CNN the president transformed the agency into a "lawless mob." The former Chicago mayor will discuss the future of education on Wednesday at the Center for American Progress in D.C. Newsom will be in Switzerland on Thursday to speak at Davos.

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On 12/12/2025 at 5:52 PM, phkrause said:

? MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell announced he's running for Minnesota governor. A Trump loyalist who's pushed false election fraud claims, he joins a crowded field of Republicans seeking to take on Democratic Gov. Tim Walz. Go deeper.

There might be a very welcome surprise for some of us in MN. They are beginning to look seriously at voter fraud in MN. MOst that are residents of MN have believed and some claim to know that MN is a hot bed of voter fraud.

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Musk's shock donation

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Marc Piasecki/Getty Images

Elon Musk has cut a massive $10 million check to bolster Nate Morris, an outsider, pro-Trump candidate running to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Axios' Alex Isenstadt has learned. Why it matters: The stunning gift is the biggest sign yet that Musk plans to spend big in the 2026 midterms, giving Republicans a formidable weapon in the expensive battle to keep their congressional majorities. After a bitter falling out with President Trump last year and threatening to start a third party, Musk is now firmly back in the GOP camp. Musk, the world's richest person, also recently gave major contributions to the pro-House and Senate GOP super PACs, Axios reported last month. Those donations followed a November dinner Musk had with Vice President Vance, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and former White House Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich. Musk has indicated privately to Republican operatives that he plans to give more. ? Zoom in: Musk's $10 million donation to the pro-Morris Fight for Kentucky super PAC, delivered last week, is the biggest single contribution he's ever given a Senate candidate. Musk was the biggest donor during the 2024 campaign, contributing nearly $300 million to pro-Republican causes. The vast majority of the funds went toward supporting Trump. The intrigue: During a recent conversation with Morris, 45, Musk came away impressed with Morris' business background and anti-establishment message. Musk also liked that Morris, a ninth-generation Kentuckian, is presenting himself as anti-McConnell, according to a person familiar with the conversation. Musk is close to Vance, who counts Morris as a personal friend. ? The backstory: Morris, an entrepreneur and tech executive, launched his campaign during an appearance last year on Donald Trump Jr.'s podcast, and is running as an anti-immigration hardliner. Morris was endorsed by conservative activist Charlie Kirk before his death last year. Morris also has the support of Sens. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and MAGA podcaster Steve Bannon. Trump hasn't yet endorsed in the Bluegrass State primary, which also includes Rep. Andy Barr and former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Republicans are heavily favored to keep the seat. Morris founded Rubicon, one of America's largest waste and recycling companies, starting with a $10,000 line of credit in 2008. He plans to largely self-fund his campaign through the May primary, according to a person familiar with his plans.

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? Independents spree

University of Montana president Seth Bodnar has resigned from his post to explore an independent bid for the Senate in one of the most expensive states in the 2024 race, according to people familiar with the matter and local press reports.

Why it matters: Bodnar's likely entrance into the Senate race would mark the fourth high-profile independent to challenge a Republican incumbent in a deep red state.

• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has never publicly claimed that he's pursuing a new strategy. But ActBlue, the Democrats' online donation platform, made it easier for independents to use its technology last summer.
• Bodnar could not be reached for comment, but a person close to him said he hadn't made a final decision.

The other side: Republicans were quick to attempt to define Bodnar, a West Point graduate and Rhodes scholar, as a Democrat in independent's clothing.

• Leadership in Action, a super PAC affiliated with incumbent Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), launched a statewide digital ad today criticizing Bodnar for tuition increases at the university and for allowing June Eastwood, a transgender woman, to compete in women's Division I athletics.

Go deeper

— Hans Nichols

⭐️ Thune's star recruit

Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) scored big today as former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya launched her Senate bid in Minnesota.

Why it matters: The race is rated "likely Democrat" by Cook Political Report. But Senate GOP leaders like their chances with a star recruit like Tafoya, Minnesota's ongoing fraud scandal and a messy Democratic primary.

• "Indiana University won its first national championship in school history. If it can happen there, it can happen here," Tafoya told us about her chances.

Between the lines: Tafoya is pitching herself as a straight-talking outsider as she tries to flip a seat in a battleground state that has become ground zero for fraught debates over fraud and immigration.

• She called herself a "pro-choice Republican. Period," a position that could ruffle some feathers in her party.
• She argued the Senate "isn't going to be passing abortion laws one way or the other" with the Supreme Court leaving it to states, and senators should focus on other issues like housing prices, border security and fraud.

The intrigue: In 2022, Tafoya publicly urged Trump not to run for president again.

• Tafoya now hopes to get the president's endorsement, and she's been communicating with White House staff, she told us in an interview.

Zoom in: Tafoya said the fatal shooting of Renee Good "should never have happened," but blamed Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey for fanning the flames of angry protesters.

• "[T]hey call it racist and fascist to enforce federal law, and now they treat ICE like it's an invading force," she said.
• When asked about evidence of ICE aggression, she said, "There's a lot of video out there, and I realize that, and we need to see the totality of the circumstances for me to comment on all of it."

The bottom line: Democratic candidates Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan have been locked in a heated primary fight.

• "I'm going to let those two fight it out, and I'll just have my popcorn ready," Tafoya said of the race.

— Stef Kight

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? Klobuchar's exit ramp

➕ Add Amy Klobuchar to the list of senators looking to become governors back home — and then name their own successors.

Why it matters: Klobuchar, who filed fundraising paperwork today for a Minnesota gubernatorial run, is poised to follow in the footsteps of Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.).

• The popular four-term senator and former presidential candidate would be a formidable front-runner in the race to succeed Gov. Tim Walz, Axios' Torey Van Oot reports.

Between the lines: A source close to the senator called today's creation of a "Minnesotans for Klobuchar" committee with state campaign finance regulators a "preliminary step necessary for any candidate considering a run."

• The source said the senator will announce her plans "in the coming days."

?️ The bottom line: If they were to win their gubernatorial races, Blackburn, Bennet, and Klobuchar would get to appoint their Senate replacements in early 2027.

• Tuberville is up for reelection to the Senate in November. 

— Hans Nichols

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Angie Nixon to run for Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate

Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon announced Thursday that she is running for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate this year.

https://floridaphoenix.com/briefs/angie-nixon-to-run-for-democratic-nomination-for-u-s-senate/?

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Trail mix: The week in the pre-campaign

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to: Pritzker said in an X post on Saturday that "it's time abolish Trump's ICE" after a Customs and Border Patrol officer fatally shot a man in Minneapolis who was recording video of CBP officers and had been legally carrying a firearm. Newsom took his feud with President Trump to Davos, where he accused the White House of helping kill his planned event there and hit Europe over its "complicity" toward the administration. He also posed for a photo with Alex Soros, son of billionaire George Soros. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear made the trek to Davos, too, wielding the talking point that America "has been the leader of the free world and now we're acting like the bully." Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer weighed in on a controversial debate roiling the Democratic Party: Is the country ready for a woman president? "I love Michelle Obama, so the last thing I want to do is disagree with her," Whitmer told NPR's Steve Inskeep. "But no, I think America is ready for a woman president." Whitmer also went to Davos, but didn't seek to be a Trump foil. New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez suggested that the next Democratic president should embrace some of Trump's expanded powers: "In order for us to correct the abuses that are happening now, we have to act the same in similar capacities that Trump has given himself," she said. Former Vice President Harris said she's "outraged" over recent ICE actions. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly acknowledged to CNN that his recent trips to South Carolina weren't just for show: He's thinking about running for president. Shapiro trolled PETA over the animal rights group wanting to use a holographic groundhog for the Punxsutawney Phil Groundhog Day tradition. California Rep. Ro Khanna escalated his brawl with Newsom, accusing him of being beholden to "AIPAC donors." A spokesperson for Newsom shot back that the governor "has taken $0 from AIPAC." Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was tapped by Harvard's Institute of Politics to be a visiting fellow this spring. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore met with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in Washington and promoted his efforts to redraw the congressional maps in Maryland in response to Trump's mid-decade redistricting push. There's still time for state lawmakers to approve a new plan before the November midterms, Moore's office said.

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San Jose mayor, a frequent Newsom critic, jumps into the California governor’s race

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan on Thursday announced he’s joining the crowded race for California governor, casting himself as a moderate Democrat with a track record of tackling some of the state’s most persistent issues including homelessness and crime.

https://apnews.com/article/california-governor-race-matt-mahan-219b8085a1f1f6400f6f0f13707274b4?

Jennifer Jenkins drops out of the Democratic Senate race and endorses Alexander Vindman

Jennifer Jenkins is dropping out of the Florida U.S. Senate primary and endorsing Alexander Vindman, the retired Army lieutenant colonel who played a key role in the first Trump impeachment and announced his candidacy on Tuesday.

https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/01/29/jennifer-jenkins-drops-out-of-the-democratic-senate-race-and-endorses-alexander-vindman/?

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👢Texas upset: Dem stuns GOP

Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a deep-red Texas state Senate seat in Tarrant County, easily beating a Trump-backed Republican, Axios Dallas' Tasha Tsiaperas reports.

• Rehmet was outspent 10 to 1 this month by his MAGA opponent, conservative activist Leigh Wambsganss, a Patriot Mobile executive.

Rehmet, a union president and Air Force veteran, won by 14 points (57%-43%) in the special election.

• Trump won the district by 17 points in 2024.

The district covers most of Fort Worth and its conservative northern suburbs. The race drew national interest after Rehmet, a first-time candidate, nearly won outright in a three-way November race.

• DNC Chair Ken Martin gloated: "November is coming, and we're ready. ALL GAS, NO BRAKES!!"

Rehmet, an aircraft mechanic, carried his early voting lead through Election Day despite a late push by Trump to rally Republicans.

💰 Rehmet spent a little over $70,000 from Jan. 1-21. Wambsganss spent more than $736,278 during that period.

• Wambsganss and Rehmet will face off again in November for a full, four-year term.

Get the latest ...

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AIPAC Donors Fail to Elect Last-Minute New Jersey House Pick

Former Lieutenant Governor Tahesha Way is not the clear front-runner in New Jersey’s special congressional election on Thursday. She’s seventh in fundraising out of 10 candidates as of last week’s Federal Election Commission deadline, and public polling has been sparse. But as the race drew close to the finish line, the Israel lobby made her the beneficiary of a last-minute push. 

https://theintercept.com/2026/02/04/aipac-new-jersey-israel-lobby-donors/?

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🚨 Sanford eyes comeback

Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford is considering three paths to political redemption — a run for his old House seat, a campaign for the governor's mansion he once occupied or a primary bid against Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Why it matters: A critic of President Trump's who lost his congressional seat in a 2018 primary to a Trump-backed candidate, Sanford is a politician in search of an office.

• ⚡️ Sanford met this week with prominent Republican strategist Jeff Roe to discuss options, according to a person familiar with the matter.
• ⚖️ He has yet to make up his mind about which office — if any — to seek this year, a person familiar with the matter said.

⛳️ His interest in challenging Graham, who frequently golfs with Trump and has received the president's endorsement, was reported earlier by FITSNews, which covers South Carolina politics.

• Sanford's last campaign was in 2020, when he waged a short-lived GOP primary bid against Trump.
• Sanford did not respond to a request for comment.
• A Roe spokesperson declined to comment.

The intrigue: Sanford and Graham have a longstanding relationship.

• Both were elected to Congress as part of the 1994 "Gingrich Revolution," when Republicans mounted a landslide midterm election victory against then-President Clinton.
• Graham expressed his support for Sanford after the then-governor admitted to having an extramarital affair with an Argentine woman.
• Graham is a godfather to one of Sanford's sons.

Sanford's name has recently reemerged in DC political circles after journalist Ryan Lizza alleged that his then-fiancée had a relationship with Sanford when Sanford was running for president in 2020.

• Sanford has not addressed the allegations.

— Alex Isenstadt and Hans Nichols